Curse

Vorlin · Aug 18, 2005, 06:55 PM // 18:55

Some of you need to go back and reread my post. *wink*

There are quite possibly areas in post-searing that drop more dye than others. What is more likely though is that someone had a clump of dye drops and erroneously attributed that to the area they were in when it happened.

As to black dye, because it's the rarest of them all that makes the clumps (both negative and positive) that much more noticeable. A clump of non-drops involving black dye might mean you go hundreds of hours without getting one to drop. It's nothing to do with luck, it's just statistics. Play long enough after that and you'll get a 'common' clump, playing very long and you'll have a lifetime drop average that's almost exactly average.

There are thousands and thousands of people playing GWars. That means that you'll always be able to find people who are at the extreme ends of a random series. For instance, somewhere out there there might be a person who's found 15 black dyes in 20 hours of play post-searing, and another who hasn't found a single black dye in a thousand hours of playing. These people are much more likely to post in threads like this, so you have to take that into account when reading them to make sure that you aren't taking an aberrant case as an average one.

Sorena Mascar · Aug 18, 2005, 07:35 PM // 19:35

I think the dyes drops have improved lately.

In the last 2 weeks I have got 2 black, 5 silver, and probably 20 other colors.

I played a ton of time and before those drops never saw a black, only got 1 silver and maybe 7 other color dyes.

Sorena Mascar

Hate · Aug 18, 2005, 07:43 PM // 19:43

One time long ago when i was doing a drake run, i grouped about six of them, they all dropped either and orange or green dye, i laughed.

SlY_DeMoN · Aug 18, 2005, 07:43 PM // 19:43

just luck I guess.

Xonic · Aug 18, 2005, 07:43 PM // 19:43

if I don't win the lottery this week, the win rate must be nerfed

if I win the lottery this week, the win rate has been increased

above statements true?

trelloskilos · Aug 18, 2005, 07:44 PM // 19:44

Vorlin - I have no disagreement with your statement, but as neither of us have any idea of the programmed algorithm that dictates dye drops, there is no way of telling. It's all just guesswork and speculation.

I'm pretty much making observations solely from my experience. I tend to travel a lot, and don't get dye drops for ages, but one particular mob in one particular place usually drops a dye for me approximately 40-50% of the time. So far though, that's out of about 5-6 times I've visited, so it's not a good accurate statistic.

(And before everyone starts asking me to spill where it is, I'm not telling, and the drops are usually yellow or orange anyway)

POurab · Aug 18, 2005, 07:46 PM // 19:46

i have found one blue, one yellow, one purple since may..

I'm really unlucky..

Vorlin · Aug 18, 2005, 08:59 PM // 20:59

Trelloskilos, I agree, there may indeed be creatures and/or areas where the dye drop is higher or lower than others. The reason I posted what I did is that it applies even in this case. The details of the average and clumping will vary, the the phenomena of what I wrote about will still apply. Say you are killing a type of creature that drops dye 50% of the time, you'll still eventually have entire runs where you don't get a single dye drop, or where you get an 85% drop due to the phenomena I detailed.

You see people attribute this to luck all the time (people have numerous times in this thread, for instance). What I'm trying to make them understand is that luck has -absolutely- nothing to do with it. It's simply a behavioural aspect you'll find in any series of events with a random component.

It's important to realize that strings of random events behave this way, because it explains a lot of things in life (as well as in computer games). For instance, occassionally you'll find someone thinking they can beat the roulette table in a gambling joint using the following method: bet X dollars on black. If you lose, bet 2*X dollars on black, if that loses bet 2*2*X dollars on black, repeat until you win. They think this is an unbeatable method. Whenever the dealer in a casino sees someone try this, they have to work hard to hide a smirk, because they understand what I've been saying about random numbers: they clump. Try the above method and you'll win for a bit (and not much, as an exercise to the reader I'll let you do the math and see how much it pays out when it works), but eventually you'll hit a string of losses that will require you to increase your bet to an amount you don't have, at which point the house cleans up by taking all your previous winnings and the money you brought with you as well.

Sorry for the mini-lecture, it's just that when people start talking about 'luck' in an area where no luck at all is involved, I just feel sort of obligated to try to educate them. It might save them some pain later in life.

None suspect the Ranger · Aug 18, 2005, 09:02 PM // 21:02

To me they've definitely increased. In the last 3 days I've gotten 1 black, 3 silver, and roughly 9 other drops, all in the same farming turf.

GladiusArcas · Aug 18, 2005, 09:33 PM // 21:33

Ive got around 250 hours playing, w/o one black dye drop. Prob about 10 silvers tho.

Artemis Bladewing · Aug 18, 2005, 09:36 PM // 21:36

In the last 3 dayes of farming I got 19 dye drops, cant see how they have been nerfed... change ur farming area

Kenect · Aug 18, 2005, 09:40 PM // 21:40

Throught the whole game i had never gotten a black dye but after 2 months and 400 hours i finaly got black dye (2 of them in the same farm run

)

Shaun · Aug 18, 2005, 11:40 PM // 23:40

With the update mine have increased alot,I usually get now from 1-3 maybe more dyes a day,since people are selling back to the traders,so they are in higer circulation.